On 13 Oct 2025, I laid out five nfa steps to Up Only. These steps played out[^1], but we do not have Up Only.
Indeed, we did not get 3AC/FTX-style disorderly unwinds. Nevertheless, here we are again in goblin town. I need to revisit my logic, and update my priors and/or re-underwrite my investment.
On 8 Nov 2025, I listed some bullish+bearish new facts. My conclusion back then was to stay long through the painful major part of November. TBVH, the post-Thanksgiving rally was a major relief.
Today, the market has dumped hard again, with almost $1bn of liquidations.
What is new or not priced in? What did I miss earlier?
I had started with, and stuck with, a fundamental bullishness based on a belief in the inevitability of crypto. This led to my long-term outlook for BTC in the 175k ~ 1 million ballpark. I think I overindexed on long term hopium.
In the short term, we have three significant negative currents:
-
a huge collapse of MSTR's mNAV premium, as well as the entirety of new DAT sp...
