On Monday (a bond market holiday in the US), I wrote:
- two firms may have suffered mortal blows over the weekend
- we wouldn't know for a few days, as companies in peril need at least a few business days to die
- the market would have a dead cat bounce
- if no further contagion, we go Up Only
It's EOD Wedesnday, and I spent much of the day sniffing for dead bodies. There's definitely no putrid stink. And at this point, I conclude that any crypto firms that got badly hurt in the weekend liquidations, actually got resurrected by centralized exchanges refunding them for losses suffered while systems did not work as they were designed to work.
But lack of information is not actual information. We can never know in the fog of war. However, I had a list a things to look at, for signs of systemic contagion:
- stock market down bigly
- risky high-beta stocks underperform old, stodgy names
- VIX stays above 28
- bonds rise (yields fall)
- the signal will be in the noise of CT somewhere, some hints at shockin...
